Let me warn you right up front…the don’t pass better gets a lot of ugly looks at the craps table. The reasons vary from superstition to just plain old “you no good traitor” to the cause. Let’s face it, it’s us against the casino and if you’re betting don’t pass, in their eyes, you’re with the casino…even though you’re not. Sadly, the don’t pass better actually has the best chance of winning after the come out roll. Let me explain.

There are 11 possible values to roll in craps…everything from 2 to 12. There are 6 ways to make a seven…more than for any other number combination on the dice. Even the next best combinations, 6 and 8, there are only 5 ways to make each of those. Therefore, after the come out roll, you have 6 ways to crap out and only 5 ways to make the point. For 5 and 9 it is 6 to 4 and for 4 and 10 it is 6 to 3.

Oh, let’s not forget that on the come out roll, while we have 8 ways that can beat us outright (the 7 and 11) there are 3 ways we can win with the 2 and 3 rolls. The 12 roll is a wash for the don’t pass better. Still, there is only about a 22% chance that the shooter will beat us on the first roll. In other words, less than 1 out of every 4 come out rolls will beat us. After that, the don’t pass better has the edge.

What I would do, before I even start betting, is chart the table for 10 come out rolls. If the don’t pass better wins at least five of those 10 come out rolls either through craps or the shooter not making the point, sit down and start betting don’t pass at that table. I am a firm believer in trends and they usually do last for a while. Again, as a don’t pass better, you are going to have the advantage anyway after the come out roll if a 7 or 11 isn’t thrown.

Naturally, this is still gambling and it isn’t fool proof, but if you want to give yourself the best advantage, in my opinion, this is the way to do it. If you don’t mind all the nasty looks you’re going to get from the other players, plunk down that $10 chip on don’t pass and see what happens.

In the meantime, in my signature is a review of a great resource that will have you playing craps like a pro. At the very least, check it out. You may just find that it is just the thing you need to take your craps game to the next level.

Check the Review. Click on http://franksmalley.com/blog/craps

By Frank Smalley
Frank Smalley

Analyst